There’s plenty of talk at the moment about interest rates and what they might mean for Australian property prices.
And rightly so.
Interest rates matter.
But I think when you live in Mackay, there’s another number we should probably be watching just as closely as the cash rate.
The Number Many People Overlook
The price of coking coal.
Mackay is a little different to a lot of property markets around Australia because such a large part of our local economy is connected, either directly or indirectly, to mining.
It’s not just the people working at the mines.
It’s the contractors, engineering businesses, transport companies, workshops in Paget, suppliers and all the other businesses and jobs that are supported by the resources industry.
When mining is going well, that money finds its way back into Mackay.
And that’s why I don’t think you can look at Mackay property purely through the lens of interest rates.
The Mackay Market Has Its Own Drivers
At the moment, premium Australian hard coking coal is around US$280 a tonne.
At the same time, the Mackay LGA house median for the first half of 2026 is around $725,000.
What I find interesting when you look back over a longer period is that Mackay house prices and the resources cycle have often told a similar story.
They certainly don’t move perfectly together.
Coal can move very quickly. Housing generally takes longer to react.
So at different times the two can get out of sync and there can be plenty of noise in between.
A Look Back at the Mining Downturn
Probably the best example is what happened during the mining downturn.
Interest rates were actually coming down, yet Mackay house prices were also falling.
If interest rates were the main driver of our market, you would have expected cheaper money to support property prices.
But that wasn’t what happened.
Mining activity had slowed, jobs and confidence were affected and the Mackay property market suffered with it.
Then, as the resources economy recovered, Mackay property began recovering as well.
What’s Happening Today?
Fast forward to today and we’re seeing almost the opposite situation.
Interest rates are much higher than they were a few years ago, yet Mackay property prices have continued to rise strongly.
Again, there are plenty of reasons for that.
Housing supply, population, rents and employment all play their part.
But a strong resources economy, high local incomes and employment security are a pretty important part of the picture.
Is Mackay Immune to Higher Rates?
None of this means Mackay is immune to higher interest rates.
We’re not.
And it certainly doesn’t mean property prices can only go one way.
It simply means Mackay has another economic engine that many residential property markets don’t have.
So when the national headlines are talking about interest rates and what they might do to property prices, it’s worth remembering that the Mackay story can be a little different.
Two Numbers Worth Watching
For me, there are two numbers worth keeping an eye on:
✅ The RBA cash rate
✅ The price of coking coal
Because rates can put the brakes on, but a strong mining economy could keep Mackay’s engine turning.
